Seismic Risk Assessments for Portfolios (Offline Service)

 

SeismiCat’s Portfolio Risk Assessment System (SeismiCat-PR) is a state-of-the-art tool that takes advantage of cloud-computing technology for performing real-estate portfolio seismic risk assessments. SeismiCat-PR benefits from decades of in-house expertise of ImageCat’s experts in probabilistic seismic risk modeling. ImageCat uses SeismiCat-PR  to provide portfolio risk assessment services to small and large real-estate property owners/managers, (re)insurance clients, lenders, risk managers and clients of Structural Engineering firms partnering with ImageCat. SeismiCat-PR uses the “Robust Simulation” technology with rigorous uncertainty treatment and offers a comprehensive view of earthquake risks in the U.S. to our clients.

Seismic Hazards

SeismCat-PR’s comprehensive stochastic earthquake catalog, “event set”, includes millions of earthquake simulations and can accurately reproduce the USGS Seismic Hazard Maps (2008, 2014 and 2018 updates).

• Full, smooth spectra from PGA to T= 5s, for return periods from 50 years to 10,000 years
• Direct accounting of soil effects from Ground Motion Models (GMMs)

• Separate treatment of between- and within-event uncertainty in GMMs

• Spatial correlation and cross-period correlation of shaking intensity
• Time-independent (UCERF3-TI) and time-dependent (UCERF3-TD) rupture model implementation

• Temporal and spatial clustering for New Madrid Seismic Zone event sequences

• Implementation of NGA West 2 (USGS 2014) and NGA East (USGS 2018)

• Deep sedimentary basin effects for the Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Salt Lake City basins (USGS 2018)

 

Vulnerability Models

SeismiCat-PR implements multiple fragility/vulnerability models, including Code Oriented Damage Assessment (CODA) [Graf & Lee, 2009, Earthquake Spectra], HAZUS [FEMA/NIBS] and  the ATC-13 Building Facility Classes.

• Vulnerability parameters are derived based on construction type, material, number of stories, year built and location according to the U.S. Building Codes
• Engineers can adjust the engineering parameters to suit the specific building from engineering studies (PMLs) for more accurate performance prediction
• Performance uncertainty is adapted from the latest ASTM standards [E2026-16a and E2557-16a]
• Other types of losses include damage from soil liquefaction, contents damage and business interruption

 

 

Diagnosis of Portfolio Risks

SeismiCat-PR provides comprehensive diagnostic capabilities on portfolio risks, identifying risk drivers and helping clients manage catastrophic losses effectively.

• • • Quantify the uncertainty in portfolio risk estimates that result from the quality of property damageability assessment inputs
    • Identify the properties that contribute most to portfolio risks and find opportunities to improve risk assessments effectively through technical investigations
    • Characterize portfolio risk contributions by region, occupancy, structural type, and other taxonomy of the portfolio, as well as predominant seismic sources (faults), to help clients better understand and manage portfolio risks
    • Identify geographic areas that have high portfolio risk concentrations and help clients manage catastrophic risks through strategic geographic risk diversification.

     

    “The Robust Simulation” Technology

    SeismiCat-PR’s “Robust Simulation” technology allows for a comprehensive exploration of the full range of epistemic uncertainties arising from the use of multiple scientifically defensible models in seismic hazard and property damageability modeling.

    • • • Transparency in complex catastrophe modeling with model integrity and traceability
        • Estimates of Center, Body, and Range (CBR) of seismic risks through simulations of an ensemble of scientifically justifiable and defensible views of risk.
        • Better estimation of “extreme loss” probabilities without intermediate model averaging

         

 

 

 

If you would like to hear more about how SeismiCat-PR can be used to study your portfolio risks, please contact us! We would be happy to discuss the process and timeline.